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5

Caraway

3yo Filly · 9-5 · Draw 6 · OR 61

Wolverhampton · Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Handicap · 1m 4f 51y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

81%

Place Prob

51%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Resumed her progress when off the mark at Thirsk (1½m) in May and has run to a similar level all 4 starts since, albeit expensive to follow. Fifth in a deeper handicap than she need contest at Yarmouth 19 days ago and she's back in class here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength78%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 27/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 7f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS27/0924 @ Southwell 10/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 1m13y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS6 @ Wolverhampton 06/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 62 · 1m4f51y Std 132 · beat its mark06/04/2026 · OR 62 par6/046OR 626 @ Wolverhampton 08/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 58 · 1m4f51y Std 134 · below its mark08/05/2026 · OR 58 par5 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 58 · 1m4f8y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 58 par16/055OR 586 @ Nottingham 11/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 63 · 1m6f Sft 135 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Leicester 22/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 63 · 1m3f179y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 63 par22/075OR 636 @ Yarmouth 23/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 63 · 1m3f104y GF 131 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 63 par4 @ Yarmouth 16/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 62 · 1m3f104y Goo 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 62 par16/094OR 62projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Yarmouth45th3rd+2
2026-07-23Yarmouth62nd2nd0
2026-07-22Leicester52nd1st+1
2026-06-11Nottingham63rd3rd0
2026-05-16Thirsk51st0th+1
2026-05-08Wolverhampton66th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/098/0522/0716/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 3-11 · tight 47/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength40%

Delivery trend -2.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/09/20257th18/15%14%+0.09
10/03/20266th11/142%17%-0.25
06/04/20264th17/255%50%-0.05
08/05/20266th6/594%17%-0.77
16/05/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
11/06/20263rd11/893%71%-0.21
22/07/20262nd11/1094%50%-0.44
23/07/20262nd10/1195%75%-0.20
16/09/20265th5/174%43%-0.31