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3yo Filly · 9-8 · Draw 4 · OR 64

Wolverhampton · Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Handicap · 1m 4f 51y

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Displayed ability at Kempton for Mark Rimell and fourth both starts in handicaps for current yard. Didn't seem to fully see it out over 1¼m at Sandown 3 weeks ago so this step up in trip isn't an obvious move.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength77%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.6
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.4
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 08/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 1m Sta 122 · HIGHER CLASS8/0444 @ Kempton 30/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 1m Sta 128 · HIGHER CLASS30/0444 @ Kempton 27/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 7f Sta 124 · HIGHER CLASS27/0546 @ Kempton 09/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 65 · 1m Sta 135 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 65 par9/096OR 655 @ Sandown 16/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 65 · 1m1f209y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 65 par16/095OR 65projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Sandown54th3rd+1
2026-09-09Kempton64th4th0
2026-05-27Kempton48th6th+2
2026-04-30Kempton43rd1st+2
2026-04-08Kempton45th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0430/0427/059/0916/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 2-10 · tight 44/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength48%

Delivery trend -17.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/04/20265th125/10%50%+0.50
30/04/20263rd150/10%82%+0.82
27/05/20268th40/10%22%+0.22
09/09/20264th11/486%77%-0.09
16/09/20264th15/261%70%+0.09