IvyArcIvyArc
3

Sun Lord

3yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 7 · OR 64

Wolverhampton · Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Handicap · 1m 4f 51y

#6

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Close relative of an Old Newton Cup winner for the same connections and showed a bit in novices at up to 11f. Never really a factor on Southwell handicap debut in July but gelded after and slight step up in trip can only help his cause.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼2
Strength85%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ripon 16/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 1m2f190y GS 123 · HIGHER CLASS16/0444 @ Leicester 25/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 1m2f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS25/0544 @ Carlisle 09/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 1m1f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS9/0645 @ Southwell 27/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 67 · 1m3f23y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 67 par27/075OR 67projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-27Southwell58th7th+1
2026-06-09Carlisle47th5th+2
2026-05-25Leicester48th6th+2
2026-04-16Ripon43rd1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0425/059/0627/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 4-11 · tight 49/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength30%

Delivery trend -1.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/04/20263rd11/142%67%+0.25
25/05/20268th11/142%36%-0.06
09/06/20267th66/10%45%+0.45
27/07/20268th11/142%46%+0.04