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3yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 3 · OR 65

Wolverhampton · Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Handicap · 1m 4f 51y

#2

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

9%

Place Prob

17%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has finished out of the first 2 only twice in 10 starts this year, just failing back on all-weather at Southwell 11 days ago. Another bold bid incoming up in trip from the same mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength62%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Windsor 25/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 58 · 1m31y GF 134 · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 58 par25/056OR 585 @ Lingfield 06/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 58 · 1m1f Sft 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Windsor 22/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 58 · 1m31y GF 133 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 58 par22/066OR 586 @ Epsom Downs 09/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 58 · 1m2f17y GF 128 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Nottingham 21/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 59 · 1m1f Goo 130 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 59 par21/076OR 596 @ Windsor 27/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 59 · 1m2f GF 140 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Ffos Las 27/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 65 · 1m2f Gd 135 · below its mark27/08/2026 · OR 65 par27/086OR 655 @ Salisbury 11/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 65 · 1m1f201y Sft 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Southwell 24/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 65 · 1m3f24y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/09/2026 · OR 65 par24/095OR 65projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-24Southwell52nd1st+1
2026-09-11Salisbury52nd1st+1
2026-08-27Ffos Las68th8th0
2026-07-27Windsor62nd2nd0
2026-07-21Nottingham61st1st0
2026-07-09Epsom Downs62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/059/0727/0824/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 61/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength79%

Delivery trend +1.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/05/20267th11/486%54%-0.32
06/06/20262nd9/276%83%+0.07
22/06/20262nd4/179%89%+0.10
09/07/20262nd7/491%83%-0.07
21/07/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
27/07/20262nd9/488%83%-0.05
27/08/20268th4/179%13%-0.66
11/09/20262nd11/271%89%+0.18
24/09/20262nd7/163%83%+0.20