Tinsel
3yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 10 · OR 58
Wolverhampton · Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Handicap · 1m 4f 51y
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 6.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Kempton | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Kempton | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Southwell | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-05-05 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-12-20 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-19 | Kempton | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 28/09/2025 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 12/10/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/11/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 58% | +0.11 |
| 20/12/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 05/05/2026 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |
| 27/07/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 26/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 09/09/2026 | 9th | 10/3 | 82% | 27% | -0.55 |