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Alfa Whiteburd

5yo Gelding · 9-13 · Draw 6 · OR 84

Wolverhampton · Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap · 7f 36y

#7

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Completed a hat-trick at Pontefract in August and did well to make the frame after setting a strong gallop when fourth of 12 in handicap (7/1) at Chester (7f, soft) 24 days ago. Expected to be bang there.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength66%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Chelmsford City 11/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 81 · 5f Std 133 · below its mark11/12/2025 · OR 81 par11/124OR 814 @ Newcastle 24/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 78 · 6f Std 133 · beat its mark24/01/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Doncaster 29/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 69 · 7f6y GS 124 · beat its mark29/03/2026 · OR 69 par29/034OR 695 @ Southwell 18/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 74 · 7f14y Std 134 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 74 par5 @ Chester 10/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 68 · 7f1y Goo 140 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 68 par10/075OR 685 @ Pontefract 17/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 68 · 6f Goo 139 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 68 par4 @ Pontefract 05/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 80 · 6f Goo 135 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 80 par5/084OR 803 @ Pontefract 16/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 85 · 6f Goo 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 85 par4 @ Chester 11/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 85 · 7f1y Goo 140 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 85 par11/094OR 85projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Chester44th4th0
2026-08-16Pontefract36th5th+1
2026-08-05Pontefract41st1st0
2026-07-17Pontefract51st2nd−1
2026-07-10Chester51st2nd−1
2026-06-18Southwell52nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/1218/065/0811/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 3-9 · tight 61/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength50%

Delivery trend -6.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/12/20257th28/10%14%+0.14
24/01/20266th16/116%50%+0.34
29/03/20268th28/10%53%+0.53
18/06/20262nd9/153%89%+0.36
10/07/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
17/07/20261st1/297%100%+0.03
05/08/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
16/08/20266th5/287%38%-0.49
11/09/20264th7/163%73%+0.10