8
Chantelle
3yo Filly · 9-6 · Draw 11 · OR 79
Wolverhampton · Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap · 7f 36y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Southwell | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Southwell | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Southwell | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-26 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 27/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength41%
Delivery trend -8.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/12/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 26/01/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 28/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 14/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/11 | 95% | 33% | -0.62 |
| 03/09/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 22/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 91% | +0.49 |