Dublin Bay
3yo Gelding · 9-12 · Draw 12 · OR 85
Wolverhampton · Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap · 7f 36y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Chester | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Southwell | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ascot | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-18 | Kempton | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +11.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 20% | -0.73 |
| 17/10/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |
| 29/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 18/03/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 57% | +0.52 |
| 10/04/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 08/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/08/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 12/09/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 63% | +0.07 |