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11

Padua

4yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 3 · OR 76

Wolverhampton · Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap · 7f 36y

#10

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Usually a free-going sort who turned in his best effort of the present campaign when third of 9 at C&D (7f) in August but couldn't get away with his headstrong tendencies despite the drop in trip when last of 8 in handicap at Salisbury (6f, soft, 8/1) 24 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength17%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Kempton 21/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR - · 1m1f219y Sta 12521/0454 @ Kempton 25/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 77 · 1m Sta 131 · beat its mark25/06/2025 · OR 77 par4 @ Haydock 19/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 77 · 6f212y Gd 130 · beat its mark19/07/2025 · OR 77 par19/074OR 774 @ Sandown 07/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 81 · 7f Goo 132 · beat its mark07/08/2025 · OR 81 par4 @ Yarmouth 10/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 81 · 1m3y Sft 131 · below its mark10/06/2026 · OR 81 par10/064OR 814 @ Epsom Downs 01/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 79 · 7f3y Goo 136 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Southwell 27/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 78 · 7f14y Std 136 · below its mark27/07/2026 · OR 78 par27/074OR 784 @ Wolverhampton 18/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 77 · 7f36y Std 132 · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Salisbury 11/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 77 · 6f Sft 131 · below its mark11/09/2026 · OR 77 par11/094OR 77projClass-projected finish: 11th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Salisbury48th8th0
2026-08-18Wolverhampton43rd3rd0
2026-07-27Southwell49th9th0
2026-07-01Epsom Downs44th4th0
2026-06-10Yarmouth411th11th0
2025-08-07Sandown44th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/047/0827/0711/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 9-11 · tight 82/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -9.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/04/20256th18/15%62%+0.56
25/06/20254th9/153%67%+0.14
19/07/20251st10/147%100%+0.53
07/08/20254th15/261%50%-0.11
10/06/202611th14/126%0%-0.26
01/07/20264th11/271%67%-0.04
27/07/20269th5/174%11%-0.63
18/08/20263rd14/126%75%+0.49
11/09/20268th8/158%0%-0.58