10
Powder Monkey
3yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 1 · OR 78
Wolverhampton · Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap · 7f 36y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
80%
Place Prob
57%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-20 | Lingfield | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Windsor | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Newmarket | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Southwell | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-09 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 78/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/03/2026 | 2nd | 16/5 | 83% | 75% | -0.08 |
| 26/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 14/04/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 62% | +0.01 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 18/09/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |