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Proud Nation

3yo Colt · 9-12 · Draw 2 · OR 85

Wolverhampton · Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap · 7f 36y

#7

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

€320,000 breeze-up purchase who was beaten just a short-head in a 5-runner Newmarket handicap in July. Never involved in big-field events at Goodwood and York on his last 2 outings and now has visor applied.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼2
Strength70%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Musselburgh 22/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 7f15y Goo 13322/0752 @ York 07/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 7f Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS7/0922 @ Hamilton 03/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR - · 1m68y Gd 136 · HIGHER CLASS3/0522 @ Chester 13/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 87 · 7f127y Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 87 par13/062OR 873 @ Newmarket 04/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 86 · 7f GF 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 86 par4/073OR 862 @ Goodwood 01/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 87 · 7f GF 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 87 par1/082OR 874 @ York 06/09/2026 · Pos 17th of 19 · OR 86 · 7f192y GS 138 · below its mark06/09/2026 · OR 86 par6/094OR 86projClass-projected finish: 9th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06York417th17th0
2026-08-01Goodwood211th9th+2
2026-07-04Newmarket32nd1st+1
2026-06-13Chester25th3rd+2
2026-05-03Hamilton23rd1st+2
2025-09-07York21st-1th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0713/066/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 5-12 · tight 57/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength10%

Delivery trend +0.9% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/07/20252nd10/1195%80%-0.15
07/09/20251st8/158%100%+0.42
03/05/20263rd5/287%0%-0.87
13/06/20265th10/147%50%+0.03
04/07/20262nd11/486%75%-0.11
01/08/202611th20/10%17%+0.17
06/09/202617th14/126%11%-0.15