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4

The Dragon King

4yo Gelding · 9-10 · Draw 5 · OR 81

Wolverhampton · Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap · 7f 36y

#4

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner who got back to form when 2 lengths second of 7 in handicap at Salisbury (7f) in June but failed to build on that when eighth of 12 in handicap at Newbury (1m, firm, 8/1) 88 days ago. Has since left Clive Cox.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 29/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 84 · 6f Sta 136 · beat its mark29/10/2025 · OR 84 par29/104OR 844 @ Wolverhampton 24/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 82 · 7f36y Std 134 · beat its mark24/11/2025 · OR 82 par4 @ Newcastle 06/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 84 · 7f14y Std 138 · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 84 par6/024OR 844 @ Wolverhampton 20/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 84 · 7f36y Std 135 · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 84 par3 @ Lingfield 03/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 84 · 1m1y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 84 par3/043OR 843 @ Lingfield 09/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 83 · 7f135y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 83 par3 @ Goodwood 22/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 82 · 7f Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 82 par22/053OR 824 @ Salisbury 14/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 80 · 6f213y Gd 135 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Newbury 09/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 81 · 1m GF 143 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 81 par9/074OR 81projClass-projected finish: 8th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-09Newbury48th8th0
2026-06-14Salisbury42nd2nd0
2026-05-22Goodwood38th7th+1
2026-05-09Lingfield35th4th+1
2026-04-03Lingfield35th4th+1
2026-03-20Wolverhampton45th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/1020/0322/059/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 4-11 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength33%

Delivery trend -2.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/10/20255th17/255%43%-0.12
24/11/20251st11/142%100%+0.58
06/02/20262nd6/168%90%+0.22
20/03/20265th5/287%56%-0.31
03/04/20265th8/158%64%+0.06
09/05/20265th16/116%43%+0.27
22/05/20268th16/116%46%+0.30
14/06/20262nd11/486%83%-0.02
09/07/20268th8/158%36%-0.22