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6

Aleppo Pepper

4yo Filly · 9-7 · Draw 6 · OR 59

Yarmouth · White Swan Fish & Seafood Apprentice Handicap · 6f 3y

#8

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Left debut form behind when second of 12 in 5f maiden at Dundalk in January 2025 for Kieran Cotter. Shaped as if needing the run after over a year off at Southwell in March but trailed home last of 5 at Lingfield on handicap debut a month later. Bit to prove on the back of a breathing operation.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.3
Today: 6
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Navan 09/10/2024 · Pos 13th of 19 · OR - · 5f180y Goo 1219/10C8C8 @ Dundalk 29/01/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 5f Std 12729/01C84 @ Southwell 09/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 4f214y Std 137 · HIGHER CLASS9/0445 @ Lingfield 28/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 62 · 5f6y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/04/2026 · OR 62 par28/045OR 62projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-28Lingfield55th4th+1
2026-04-09Southwell43rd1st+2
2025-01-29Dundalk?2nd4th−2
2024-10-09Navan?13th15th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/1029/019/0428/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 4-9 · tight 54/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -19.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/10/202413th66/10%33%+0.33
29/01/20252nd40/10%91%+0.91
09/04/20263rd13/266%60%-0.06
28/04/20265th20/10%0%0.00