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Arnaz

5yo Gelding · 9-11 · Draw 1 · OR 63

Yarmouth · White Swan Fish & Seafood Apprentice Handicap · 6f 3y

#2

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Bagged a pair of 6f Chepstow handicaps in August. Unable to lead from a high draw when a solid sixth of 16 in handicap at Brighton (6f, good) later that month but found less than looked likely when fifth of 13 in handicap at Windsor (6f, good to firm) 28 days ago. Still considered.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength76%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 20/02/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 66 · 7f14y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/02/2026 · OR 66 par20/025OR 666 @ Kempton 08/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 64 · 6f Sta 135 · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 64 par6 @ Lingfield 19/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 62 · 7f Goo 133 · below its mark19/05/2026 · OR 62 par19/056OR 626 @ Ffos Las 30/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 59 · 7f80y Goo 137 · below its mark30/06/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Doncaster 01/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 56 · 7f6y GF 134 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 56 par1/086OR 566 @ Chepstow 09/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 54 · 6f16y GF 132 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Chepstow 18/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 54 · 6f16y GF 125 · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 54 par18/086OR 542 @ Brighton 23/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 60 · 5f215y Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Windsor 07/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 64 · 6f12y Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 64 par7/095OR 64projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Windsor55th4th+1
2026-08-23Brighton26th1st+4
2026-08-18Chepstow61st1st0
2026-08-09Chepstow61st1st0
2026-08-01Doncaster68th8th0
2026-06-30Ffos Las67th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0230/0618/087/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength66%

Delivery trend -1.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/02/202612th33/10%0%0.00
08/04/20267th14/126%40%+0.14
19/05/20268th18/15%13%+0.07
30/06/20267th18/15%14%+0.09
01/08/20268th7/163%30%-0.33
09/08/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
18/08/20261st6/594%100%+0.06
23/08/20266th5/287%67%-0.20
07/09/20265th6/168%67%-0.02