Danger Alert
6yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 8 · OR 56
Yarmouth · White Swan Fish & Seafood Apprentice Handicap · 6f 3y
#9
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Brighton | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-24 | Pontefract | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Yarmouth | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Windsor | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Windsor | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-12-04 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 20/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 25/11/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 70% | +0.02 |
| 04/12/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 11/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 23/05/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.02 |
| 30/08/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 38% | -0.20 |
| 24/09/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 28/09/2026 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 13% | -0.69 |