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7

Honky Tonk Girl

3yo Filly · 9-7 · Draw 5 · OR 60

Yarmouth · White Swan Fish & Seafood Apprentice Handicap · 6f 3y

#4

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won a novice over 6f at Bath in July before looking unsuited by the track at Chepstow on handicap debut next time. Fewer excuses at Lingfield 3 weeks ago and tongue strap now goes on.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength68%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Bath 13/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 5f160y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS13/0655 @ Southwell 05/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 7f14y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS5/0755 @ Wolverhampton 14/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 6f20y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS14/0754 @ Nottingham 21/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 6f18y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS21/0745 @ Bath 31/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 60 · 5f160y Fm 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 60 par31/075OR 605 @ Chepstow 18/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 63 · 7f16y GF 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 63 par18/085OR 636 @ Lingfield 12/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 61 · 7f1y Std 131 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 61 par12/096OR 61projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Lingfield66th6th0
2026-08-18Chepstow54th3rd+1
2026-07-31Bath51st0th+1
2026-07-21Nottingham43rd1st+2
2026-07-14Wolverhampton54th3rd+1
2026-07-05Southwell59th8th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0621/0712/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 4-9 · tight 59/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength20%

Delivery trend -3.7% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/06/20265th16/116%60%+0.44
05/07/20269th11/271%27%-0.44
14/07/20264th9/276%67%-0.10
21/07/20263rd8/158%71%+0.14
31/07/20261st5/696%100%+0.04
18/08/20264th8/158%50%-0.08
12/09/20266th10/147%29%-0.19