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8

Iconic Dawn

3yo Filly · 9-4 · Draw 3 · OR 57

Yarmouth · White Swan Fish & Seafood Apprentice Handicap · 6f 3y

#3

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

First-time cheekpieces and return to sprinting worked the oracle when getting off the mark at Lingfield 11 days ago. Not in same form when a remote third of 11 at Kempton 12 days ago but too early to forget her most recent win and blinkers are now reapplied.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength52%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Lingfield 03/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 6f1y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS3/0955 @ Wolverhampton 16/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 6f20y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Lingfield 14/10/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 63 · 7f1y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/10/2025 · OR 63 par14/105OR 635 @ Salisbury 23/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 60 · 6f213y Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Wolverhampton 21/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 57 · 1m142y Std 128 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 57 par21/076OR 576 @ Ffos Las 04/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 54 · 7f80y Gd 125 · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Ffos Las 21/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 52 · 7f80y Gd 132 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 52 par21/086OR 526 @ Lingfield 12/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 51 · 6f1y Std 126 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Kempton 23/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 57 · 6f Sta 130 · beat its mark23/09/2026 · OR 57 par23/096OR 57projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23Kempton63rd3rd0
2026-09-12Lingfield61st1st0
2026-08-21Ffos Las64th4th0
2026-08-04Ffos Las64th4th0
2026-07-21Wolverhampton67th7th0
2026-05-23Salisbury511th10th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0923/0521/0823/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 67/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength93%

Delivery trend -2.7% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/09/20253rd28/10%80%+0.80
16/09/20255th6/168%56%-0.13
14/10/202514th28/10%0%0.00
23/05/202611th50/10%23%+0.23
21/07/20267th20/10%33%+0.33
04/08/20264th28/10%57%+0.57
21/08/20264th4/179%73%-0.06
12/09/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
23/09/20263rd5/174%80%+0.06