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Lady Jemima

2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 2 · OR 76

Yarmouth · SPP Digital 'Confined' EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f 3y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

22%

Place Prob

30%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

St Mark's Basilica filly who has improved with each outing to date, under a change of tactics when good second of 10 in a Newmarket maiden (7f) 9 days ago. That was a fair effort and a repeat should see her thereabouts again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 15/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 5f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS15/0424 @ Kempton 14/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 6f Sta 12814/0942 @ Newmarket 26/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 7f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS26/092projClass-projected finish: 1st of 1
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-26Newmarket22nd1st+1
2026-09-14Kempton46th7th−1
2026-04-15Newmarket27th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0414/0926/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 77/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +42.6% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/04/20267th14/126%14%-0.12
14/09/20266th16/116%29%+0.13
26/09/20262nd16/116%89%+0.73