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9

Ava Louise

2yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 2 · OR 46

Yarmouth · Origin Amenity Solutions Nursery · 7f 3y

#9

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Well held in 5f/6f maidens and needs to improve now handicapping, though that's possible given her low starting base.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼2
Strength63%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Brighton 22/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 5f60y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS22/0645 @ Beverley 28/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR - · 5f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS28/0754 @ Yarmouth 05/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 6f3y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS5/084projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-05Yarmouth49th7th+2
2026-07-28Beverley58th7th+1
2026-06-22Brighton45th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0628/075/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 26/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength44%

Delivery trend +5.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/06/20265th33/10%0%0.00
28/07/20268th40/10%42%+0.42
05/08/20269th300/10%11%+0.11