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3

Crystal Kraken

2yo Filly · 9-7 · Draw 5 · OR 60

Yarmouth · Origin Amenity Solutions Nursery · 7f 3y

#3

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

10%

Place Prob

18%

Rank

#3

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Runner-up in first 2 nurseries but has virtually refused to race in blinkers the last twice. Headgear removed up in trip but got to be treated with caution.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength48%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Bath 29/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 5f160y Fm 128 · HIGHER CLASS29/0455 @ Wolverhampton 11/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 6f20y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Redcar 18/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR - · 5f217y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS18/0554 @ Lingfield 04/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 6f1y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS6 @ Thirsk 24/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 60 · 6f Goo 130 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 60 par24/076OR 606 @ Chepstow 09/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 61 · 5f16y GF 132 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Chepstow 31/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 61 · 5f16y Goo 131 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 61 par31/086OR 616 @ Wolverhampton 07/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 61 · 5f21y Std 131 · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 61 par5 @ Leicester 21/09/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 60 · 6f Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 60 par21/095OR 60projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Leicester514th13th+1
2026-09-07Wolverhampton611th11th0
2026-08-31Chepstow63rd3rd0
2026-08-09Chepstow62nd2nd0
2026-07-24Thirsk62nd2nd0
2026-06-04Lingfield45th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/044/0631/0821/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 9-9 · tight 90/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -10.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/04/20269th125/10%11%+0.11
11/05/20267th100/10%40%+0.40
18/05/20263rd100/10%86%+0.86
04/06/20265th11/142%56%+0.13
24/07/20262nd6/168%91%+0.22
09/08/20262nd11/486%86%+0.00
31/08/20263rd8/1597%50%-0.47
07/09/202611th9/153%0%-0.53
21/09/202614th40/10%0%0.00