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4

Ground Force

2yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 4 · OR 60

Yarmouth · Origin Amenity Solutions Nursery · 7f 3y

#4

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#4

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed quite a bit more in 7f Kempton novice last month when 400/1 and could build on that now tackling nurseries down in class. Interesting for his successful stable.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼3
Strength95%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 9.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +3.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Goodwood 28/07/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR - · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS28/0723 @ Southwell 27/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 7f14y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS27/0834 @ Kempton 04/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 7f Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS4/094projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Kempton47th5th+2
2026-08-27Southwell39th5th+3
2026-07-28Goodwood213th8th+4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0727/084/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 63/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +17.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/07/202613th66/10%14%+0.14
27/08/20269th125/10%0%0.00
04/09/20267th400/10%50%+0.50