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Box To Box

7yo Gelding · 10-2 · Draw 2 · OR 87

Yarmouth · Haven Seashore Holiday Park Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 23y

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made all from reduced mark at Haydock last June and finished 2025 with a pair of good runner-up efforts. Stepped up on his belated return when fifth of 10 in handicap at Chester (10.3f, good to soft) 23 days ago and he's respected having been eased another 1 lb.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength73%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ York 11/10/2024 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 93 · 7f192y Sft 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/10/2024 · OR 93 par11/102OR 933 @ Chester 08/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 86 · 1m2f70y Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/05/2025 · OR 86 par4 @ Chester 31/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 84 · 1m4f63y Gd 135 · beat its mark31/05/2025 · OR 84 par31/054OR 844 @ Haydock 21/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 82 · 1m2f100y Gd 132 · beat its mark21/06/2025 · OR 82 par2 @ Haydock 05/07/2025 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 88 · 1m3f175y Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/07/2025 · OR 88 par5/072OR 882 @ Chelmsford City 07/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 88 · 1m2f Sta 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/08/2025 · OR 88 par3 @ Chester 13/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 90 · 1m2f70y GS 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2025 · OR 90 par13/093OR 903 @ Windsor 13/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 89 · 1m2f GF 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 89 par3 @ Chester 12/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 88 · 1m2f70y Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 88 par12/093OR 88projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Chester35th4th+1
2026-08-13Windsor36th5th+1
2025-09-13Chester32nd1st+1
2025-08-07Chelmsford City22nd0th+2
2025-07-05Haydock212th10th+2
2025-06-21Haydock41st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/1021/0613/0912/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 40/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength58%

Delivery trend -3.2% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/10/20246th33/10%67%+0.67
08/05/20257th10/382%54%-0.29
31/05/20256th4/179%44%-0.35
21/06/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
05/07/202512th16/116%15%-0.00
07/08/20252nd12/137%89%+0.52
13/09/20252nd11/486%89%+0.03
13/08/20266th12/137%29%-0.08
12/09/20265th4/179%56%-0.23