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8

Leonardo Blu

3yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 1 · OR 79

Yarmouth · Haven Seashore Holiday Park Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 23y

#5

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Confirmed debut promise when winning a Nottingham maiden (1m) in May. Has looked consistent rather than progressive since, running up to his best when fourth of 7 in handicap at Salisbury (1¼m, good to soft) 32 days ago. Might need his mark to ease a shade further.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Doncaster 02/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 1m Goo 1292/0554 @ Nottingham 31/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 1m75y Goo 13031/0544 @ Windsor 13/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 1m31y GF 13513/0743 @ Goodwood 31/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 82 · 1m3f44y GF 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 82 par31/073OR 824 @ Salisbury 03/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 80 · 1m1f201y Goo 131 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 80 par3/094OR 80projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Salisbury44th4th0
2026-07-31Goodwood38th7th+1
2026-07-13Windsor44th4th0
2026-05-31Nottingham41st1st0
2026-05-02Doncaster52nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0531/0513/0731/073/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 4-10 · tight 53/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength19%

Delivery trend -6.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/05/20262nd14/126%80%+0.54
31/05/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
13/07/20264th15/890%70%-0.20
31/07/20268th50/10%42%+0.42
03/09/20264th12/137%50%+0.13