Lucky Hero
3yo Gelding · 9-10 · Draw 3 · OR 85
Yarmouth · Haven Seashore Holiday Park Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 23y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Redcar | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Newmarket | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-29 | Redcar | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Ripon | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Chester | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | York | 4 | 17th | 17th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 12/10/2025 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 22% | -0.51 |
| 30/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 23/05/2026 | 17th | 10/1 | 47% | 16% | -0.32 |
| 12/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 60% | +0.05 |
| 29/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 07/08/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 09/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |