IvyArcIvyArc
10

Warning Symbol

3yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 9 · OR 74

Yarmouth · Haven Seashore Holiday Park Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 23y

#10

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Well backed to make a winning handicap debut at Kempton in February, value extra having been up with the strong pace throughout. Returned lame at Chelmsford the following month and shaped as if needing the outing after a 5-month break when fifth of 12 at Newmarket (1m, good to firm) 11 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Windsor 14/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 6f12y GF 13314/0752 @ Goodwood 29/07/2025 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR - · 6f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS29/0724 @ Chelmsford City 28/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 7f Std 13328/0845 @ Kempton 18/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 71 · 1m Sta 132 · beat its mark18/02/2026 · OR 71 par18/025OR 715 @ Newmarket 24/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 74 · 1m Goo 135 · beat its mark24/09/2026 · OR 74 par24/095OR 74projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-24Newmarket55th6th−1
2026-03-12Chelmsford City5−1
2026-02-18Kempton51st2nd−1
2025-08-28Chelmsford City43rd3rd0
2025-07-29Goodwood210th8th+2
2025-07-14Windsor55th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0729/0728/0818/0224/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 4-9 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength41%

Delivery trend -2.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/07/20255th8/158%60%+0.02
29/07/202510th33/10%36%+0.36
28/08/20253rd9/276%75%-0.01
18/02/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
24/09/20265th8/158%64%+0.06