1
Drifts Away
5yo Gelding · 10-1 · Draw 11 · OR 81
Yarmouth · Moulton Racing Club Handicap · 1m 3y
#1
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
40%
Place Prob
34%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Newmarket | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Newmarket | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Yarmouth | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Newmarket | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-28 | Newbury | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-07-26 | York | 4 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 3-12 · tight 45/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength37%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 91% | +0.44 |
| 29/05/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 13/06/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |
| 26/07/2025 | 16th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 28/08/2025 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 13% | -0.48 |
| 19/06/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 25% | +0.20 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 19/09/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.23 |