9
Ecclefechan
3yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 7 · OR 73
Yarmouth · Moulton Racing Club Handicap · 1m 3y
#6
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength27%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Newmarket | 5 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-09-07 | Windsor | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Yarmouth | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-24 | Windsor | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-07 | Musselburgh | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Newmarket | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 7-12 · tight 69/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength6%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.02 |
| 26/06/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |
| 17/07/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 30/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 07/09/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 24/09/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |