IvyArcIvyArc
8

Galileo Island

3yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 9 · OR 74

Yarmouth · Moulton Racing Club Handicap · 1m 3y

#9

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Completed 7f double for Marco Botti last year. Changed hands for 34,000 gns and had been gelded prior to an underwhelming stable debut at Epsom last month (hung left). Has a bit to prove back over 1m, having disappointed on his sole previous attempt.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Doncaster 19/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 70 · 7f6y Goo 133 · beat its mark19/07/2025 · OR 70 par19/075OR 705 @ Chelmsford City 21/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 70 · 7f Sta 133 · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 70 par4 @ Epsom Downs 28/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 79 · 7f3y Goo 135 · beat its mark28/09/2025 · OR 79 par28/094OR 794 @ Southwell 20/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 82 · 1m13y Std 135 · below its mark20/11/2025 · OR 82 par4 @ Kempton 10/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 82 · 7f Sta 135 · beat its mark10/12/2025 · OR 82 par10/124OR 824 @ Southwell 01/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 83 · 7f14y Std 135 · beat its mark01/01/2026 · OR 83 par4 @ Doncaster 20/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 80 · 7f6y GF 135 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 80 par20/064OR 804 @ Leicester 04/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 78 · 7f GF 135 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Epsom Downs 10/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 77 · 7f3y Goo 134 · below its mark10/09/2026 · OR 77 par10/094OR 77projClass-projected finish: 10th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Epsom Downs49th9th0
2026-07-04Leicester43rd3rd0
2026-06-20Doncaster48th8th0
2026-01-01Southwell44th4th0
2025-12-10Kempton42nd2nd0
2025-11-20Southwell43rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0720/1120/0610/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 5-12 · tight 58/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength21%

Delivery trend +3.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/07/20252nd9/276%86%+0.09
21/08/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
28/09/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
20/11/20253rd6/492%33%-0.59
10/12/20252nd7/282%86%+0.04
01/01/20264th9/276%57%-0.19
20/06/20268th22/10%42%+0.42
04/07/20263rd16/116%67%+0.51
10/09/20269th22/10%0%0.00