11
Guest House
3yo Gelding · 9-1 · Draw 12 · OR 70
Yarmouth · Moulton Racing Club Handicap · 1m 3y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
49%
Place Prob
37%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength32%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Yarmouth | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-22 | Newmarket | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Yarmouth | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-23 | Yarmouth | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Newmarket | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Newmarket | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-12 · tight 26/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength55%
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2025 | 14th | 200/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 30/04/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 57% | +0.15 |
| 19/06/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 33% | -0.56 |
| 02/08/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 22/08/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 17/09/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |