IvyArcIvyArc
6

Island Bear

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 8 · OR 76

Yarmouth · Moulton Racing Club Handicap · 1m 3y

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#4

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Built on the promise of last run to shed maiden tag in 13-runner handicap at Leicester (1m, good to firm) a fortnight ago, leading final 50 yds having had to pick way through. 3 lb rise far from insurmountable so every chance of following up.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Salisbury 25/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 6f213y GF 13325/0642 @ Goodwood 02/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Southwell 07/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 81 · 1m13y Std 136 · below its mark07/04/2026 · OR 81 par7/044OR 814 @ Nottingham 19/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 79 · 1m75y Goo 134 · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Chepstow 06/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 78 · 7f16y Sft 134 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 78 par6/064OR 784 @ Doncaster 09/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 76 · 1m2f43y GF 128 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ Newbury 26/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 75 · 1m2f GF 130 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 75 par26/084OR 755 @ Epsom Downs 10/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 74 · 1m113y Goo 134 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 74 par4 @ Leicester 21/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 73 · 1m53y Goo 129 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 73 par21/094OR 73projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Leicester41st1st0
2026-09-10Epsom Downs55th6th−1
2026-08-26Newbury44th4th0
2026-07-09Doncaster46th6th0
2026-06-06Chepstow44th4th0
2026-05-19Nottingham45th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0619/0526/0821/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 83/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/06/20253rd4/179%50%-0.29
02/08/20256th25/10%55%+0.55
07/04/20267th12/137%0%-0.37
19/05/20265th22/10%50%+0.50
06/06/20264th8/158%50%-0.08
09/07/20266th22/10%29%+0.29
26/08/20264th18/15%50%+0.45
10/09/20265th18/15%56%+0.50
21/09/20261st6/168%100%+0.32