2
Rogue Allegiance
4yo Gelding · 10-0 · Draw 10 · OR 80
Yarmouth · Moulton Racing Club Handicap · 1m 3y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength40%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Newmarket | 4 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Kempton | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Yarmouth | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Yarmouth | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Yarmouth | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Yarmouth | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 4-12 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength17%
Delivery trend -6.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/12/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 11% | -0.15 |
| 23/01/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 17% | +0.11 |
| 13/04/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |
| 21/04/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 12/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 19/09/2026 | 14th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |