15:22 · Chester

J20 Classified Claiming Stakes

7f 127yGoodClass 43YO plusTURF6 runners
Ordered by projected finish
4
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 855/2
Blue Prince silks

G & A Racing

Blue Prince

★★★★★

5yo Gelding · 8-13

Blue Point - Zip Along (Iffraaj)

Oisin Murphy70%0/3P D Evans60%
933133
7.0Going 8.0Class ↓3

Ended a losing run stretching back almost 2 years when seeing off 6 rivals over 7f at Salisbury (good) in June. Creditable third at Kempton 18 days later but below form in 4-runner event back at Salisbury last time. Obvious claims if bouncing back, though, and booking of Murphy looks significant.

Class Advantage

3/10 · C4 · finish vs mark above3/10 · mark par3/106/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above6/05 · mark par7/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above7/06 · mark par14/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above14/06 · mark par2/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above2/07 · mark par21/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above21/07 · mark par21/07projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength46%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 17%Dist: 7f 127y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 9 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 33%3/10Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 85%Pos 3 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 3 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 71%7/06Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 100%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 67%2/07Pos 3 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 3 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 33%21/07
Projected finish1st of 6
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength66%
ExpectedActualTrend
2
3
OR 827/2
Alpha Capture silks

Nextgen Racing And Fell

Alpha Capture

★★★★

6yo Gelding · 9-4

Cotai Glory - York Express (Vale Of York)

K Stott70%1/4Roger Fell60%
362120
5.0Class ↓3
Blinkers

Built on several encouraging runs since joining this yard when landing 7f Doncaster handicap (good to firm) in June and only narrowly denied in follow-up bid there 15 days later. Encountered traffic problems when down the field at York last time and expected to fare much better here.

Class Advantage

7/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above7/04 · mark par7/0418/04 · C4 · finish vs mark above18/04 · mark par2/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above2/06 · mark par14/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above14/06 · mark par9/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above9/07 · mark par24/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above24/07 · mark par24/07projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength35%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 50%Dist: 7f 127y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 3 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 75%7/04Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 58%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 88%2/06Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 89%9/07Pos 10 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 10 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 47%24/07
Projected finish2nd of 6
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength67%
ExpectedActualTrend
3
2
OR 814/1
I Still Have Faith silks

J Morley D Reynolds C Watkins & Partne

6yo Gelding · 9-2

Expert Eye - The Thrill Is Gone (Bahamian Bounty)

Ray Dawson60%0/1S C Williams80%
254065
3.0Class ↓4
Tongue strap

On a long losing run but has shaped well on occasions, going close twice on the all-weather in the spring. Has been below best on last 3 outings, though, and tendency to pull hard remains a concern.

Class Advantage

3/04 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above3/04 · mark par3/042/05 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above2/05 · mark par16/05 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above16/05 · mark par11/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above11/06 · mark par25/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above25/06 · mark par18/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below18/07 · mark par18/07projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength60%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 17%Dist: 7f 127y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 91%3/04Pos 5 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 5 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 67%Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 70%16/05Pos 10 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 10 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 36%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 38%25/06Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 33%18/07
Projected finish3rd of 6
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength45%
ExpectedActualTrend
6
5
OR 7713/2
Midnight Strike silks

James Paul Services To Industry Ltd

4yo Gelding · 8-13

Starspangledbanner - Not After Midnight (Big Bad Bob)

Jack CallanJ Candlish80%
000815
4.0Class ↓4
Cheek piecesTongue strap

Useful at his peak in Ireland and made the most of a big drop in grade fitted with headgear when landing 3-runner seller at Beverley 30 days ago. Found life tougher back in a handicap last time, though.

Class Advantage

6/05 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below6/05 · mark par6/0530/05 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above30/05 · mark par13/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below13/06 · mark par27/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above27/06 · mark par3/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above3/07 · mark par18/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below18/07 · mark par18/07projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move
Strength39%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 83%Dist: 7f 127y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 13 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 13 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 0%6/05Pos 11 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 17 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 17 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 11%13/06Pos 8 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 46%Pos 1 · SP 8/13 | Expected: 97%Pos 1 · SP 8/13 | Actual: 100%3/07Pos 5 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 5 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 20%18/07
Projected finish4th of 6
EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend
Strength64%
ExpectedActualTrend
1
4
OR 7914/1
Candonomore silks

Broad Oak Km

5yo Gelding · 9-6

Almanzor - Tikitiki (Fastnet Rock)

George Wood60%J Candlish80%
213687
3.0
1st Cheekpieces +2Tongue strap

Ended time with Stuart Williams with a 1m Bath win. Creditable third over 9f at Ayr on first outing for Jennie Candlish but 3 lesser efforts have followed and not favoured by the conditions now dropping into claiming company.

Class Advantage

21/04 · C4 · finish vs mark above21/04 · mark par21/0427/04 · C4 · finish vs mark above27/04 · mark par20/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above20/05 · mark par30/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above30/05 · mark par27/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above27/06 · mark par13/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below13/07 · mark par13/07projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength46%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 17%Dist: 7f 127y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 90%21/04Pos 1 · SP 1/1 | Expected: 95%Pos 1 · SP 1/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 80%20/05Pos 6 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 6 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 44%Pos 8 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 13%27/06Pos 7 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 7 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 14%13/07
Projected finish5th of 6
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength21%
ExpectedActualTrend
5
6
OR 7233/1
Calyxoh silks

The Matrix Partnership

Calyxoh

★★

4yo Gelding · 8-13

Calyx - Eldalil (Singspiel)

Paddy Bradley60%P Morris70%
909730
3.0Class ↓3
1st Visor +2

Best effort this year when third of 9 in a C&D handicap 22 days ago. Disappointing back on all-weather last time, though, and not the easiest to weigh up with more severe headgear now reached for.

Class Advantage

6/02 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a6/026/03 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a12/06 · C4 · finish vs mark below12/06 · mark par4/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below4/07 · mark par11/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par25/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below25/07 · mark par25/07projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Class readCOMPETITIVE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move
Strength30%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 50%Dist: 7f 127y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 47%6/02Pos 12 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 12 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 27%Pos 9 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 20%12/06Pos 7 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 3 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 75%11/07Pos 11 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 9%25/07
Projected finish6th of 6
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength38%
ExpectedActualTrend