14:40 · Nottingham

Weatherbys VAT Services Nursery Handicap

6f 18yGoing TBCClass 52YO onlyTURFHandicap7 runners
Ordered by projected finish
6
3
OR 6815/2
Dissenter silks

Mr P Mitchell & Mrs S Davis

2yo Filly · 9-3

Kodi Bear - Party Rebel (Excelebration)

Ashley Lewis70%1/2−5lbM P Tregoning
51
7.0

Built on her debut promise when a hard-fought winner of an ordinary Chepstow maiden (6f) 10 days ago. Good-value claimer retained and doesn't have much improvement to find on nursery bow.

Class Advantage

1/07 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a1/0724/07 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a24/07projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength10%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f 18y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 5 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 60%1/07Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 100%24/07
Projected finish1st of 7
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
2
Top Pick1
OR 729/2
Fern Clyde silks

Nick Bradley Racing 4 & Partner

2yo Filly · 9-7

Lope Y Fernandez - Queenoftheclyde (Dandy Man)

Jake Dickson60%−5lbT D Easterby60%
643134
6.0Going 8.0
Hood1st Tongue Strap +2

Improved to get off the mark in an ordinary maiden at Pontefract (6f) last month. Handicapper has at least offered some respite following 5¼-length defeat on nursery debut at Hamilton.

Class Advantage

15/04 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a15/0417/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a28/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a8/06 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a23/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a17/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below17/07 · mark par17/07projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength61%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f 18y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 6 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 50%15/04Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 57%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 67%28/05Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 3 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 3 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 33%23/06Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 25%17/07
Projected finish2nd of 7
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength20%
ExpectedActualTrend
3
4
OR 7150/1
Leucothea silks

Jastar Capital Limited

2yo Filly · 9-6

Soldier's Call - Maine Island (Shamardal)

S M Levey70%0/1R Hannon60%
2320
4.0Class ↓3

Split an above-average pair on debut at Bath. Ran to similar level when second in relatively valuable Goodwood seller before finding Newbury's Super Sprint too competitive latest. Opening mark requires more, though yard 3-8 with nursery debutants last month.

Class Advantage

27/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a27/048/05 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a8/057/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a7/0618/07 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above18/07 · mark par18/07projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength79%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f 18y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 83%27/04Pos 3 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 3 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 60%8/05Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 75%7/06Pos 18 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 18 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 26%18/07
Projected finish3rd of 7
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength24%
ExpectedActualTrend
1
2
OR 747/2
Boleto silks

Middleham Park Racing XCIII

2yo Colt · 9-9

Wootton Bassett - Sorteo (Invincible Spirit)

Rossa Ryan80%0/1C G Cox60%
106
4.0Class ↓4

Form of debut win at Pontefract hasn't worked out. Flying too high in the Windsor Castle before failing to see out his race on nursery debut at York. Does benefit from a drop in grade here.

Class Advantage

2/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a2/0617/06 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a17/0611/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par11/07projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move2
Strength83%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f 18y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 100%2/06Pos 19 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 19 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 25%17/06Pos 6 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 6 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 29%11/07
Projected finish4th of 7
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength2%
ExpectedActualTrend
7
6
OR 6725/1
Harry's Pop silks

K Shenton, N Bradley 6 & D Cunha

2yo Gelding · 9-2

Harry Angel - Poppy Jag (Kodiac)

S Donohoe60%0/1Dylan Cunha
7404
4.0Class ↓3

Well-backed fourth (front 3 all improved next time) at Chester on second start. Gelded following a wayward performance at Bath and looked more straightforward when 3¾ lengths fourth at Southwell latest. Needs to build on that now switched to a nursery.

Class Advantage

23/05 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a23/0512/06 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a12/061/07 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a1/0723/07 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a23/07projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Class readCOMPETITIVE
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move1
Strength54%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f 18y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 7 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 45%23/05Pos 4 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 63%12/06Pos 11 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 11 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 0%1/07Pos 4 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 73%23/07
Projected finish5th of 7
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength39%
ExpectedActualTrend
5
7
OR 689/1
Mobadir silks

Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum

2yo Gelding · 9-3

No Nay Never - Mobadra (Oasis Dream)

K Shoemark60%0/2E Walker60%
667
3.0

Son of No Nay Never. Still looked extremely raw when beaten less than 5 lengths in a Doncaster novice that's worked out well on qualifying run. Subsequent gelding operation likely to have done him the world of good. Could capitalise on a potentially lenient opening mark.

Class Advantage

14/05 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a14/057/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a7/063/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a3/07projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move1
Strength55%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f 18y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 6 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 0%14/05Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 0%7/06Pos 7 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 7 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 40%3/07
Projected finish6th of 7
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength47%
ExpectedActualTrend
4
Market Fav5
OR 719/4
Star People silks

John Blackburn & Ross Harmon

2yo Gelding · 9-6

Sioux Nation - Tayberry (Oasis Dream)

Marco Ghiani60%J & S Quinn
052
5.0Class ↓3

Son of Sioux Nation who cost 85,000 gns. Gelded prior to pushing an odds-on favourite all the way in match race at Ayr (6f) on qualifying run. That form is hard to assess, but he still rates as one of the more likely winners on nursery debut.

Class Advantage

14/05 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a14/0530/05 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a30/0520/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a20/07projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move2
Strength92%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f 18y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 11 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 11 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 29%14/05Pos 5 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 5 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 60%30/05Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 0%20/07
Projected finish7th of 7
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength5%
ExpectedActualTrend