7
Just Bird
7yo Gelding · 9-6
Argentan · Prix Ce Bello Romain - Monte · 1m 6f 64y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
94%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Meslay Du Maine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Cabourg | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Nantes | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-11 | Argentan | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Chateaubriant | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Meslay Du Maine | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength91%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/12/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 15/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 90% | +0.14 |
| 05/02/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 70% | -0.04 |
| 24/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |
| 09/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 91% | +0.25 |
| 22/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 93% | +0.27 |
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 91% | -0.03 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 28/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |