12
Kiviana
6yo Mare · 9-6
Argentan · Prix Capital Mail - Monte · 1m 6f 64y
#11
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength13%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Cabourg | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Caen | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-11-07 | Laval | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-07 | Vincennes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-04 | Les Sables | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-09 | Argentan | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength55%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2025 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 80% | +0.25 |
| 28/04/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 63% | -0.01 |
| 13/05/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 08/06/2025 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 33% | -0.09 |
| 04/09/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 90% | +0.53 |
| 07/10/2025 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 40% | -0.02 |
| 07/11/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 07/07/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |