11
Ksar Ludois
6yo Gelding · 8-13
Argentan · Prix Capital Mail - Monte · 1m 6f 64y
#8
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength38%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Caen | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Vichy | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Caen | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2025-05-17 | Caen | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2024-07-02 | Vichy | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-06-20 | Caen | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength72%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2023 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 36% | +0.30 |
| 14/05/2024 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 62% | -0.07 |
| 01/06/2024 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 92% | -0.01 |
| 20/06/2024 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 54% | -0.04 |
| 02/07/2024 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 17/05/2025 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 47% | -0.30 |
| 12/03/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 44% | -0.44 |