5
Lady De Grez
5yo Filly · 9-13
Argentan · Prix Capital Mail - Monte · 1m 6f 64y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength47%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | Argentan | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Caen | 5 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Caen | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-03 | Agen | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-18 | Laval | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-18 | Vincennes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 12
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength91%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 22/07/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 15/08/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 18/09/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 18/02/2026 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 03/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |
| 12/03/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 73% | +0.05 |
| 25/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 92% | +0.00 |
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 92% | +0.04 |