6
Lord De Vandel
5yo Gelding · 10-3
Argentan · Prix Capital Mail - Monte · 1m 6f 64y
#9
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength44%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Pornichet | 4 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-06-30 | Le Mont-Saint-Michel | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Le Mans | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-08 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-17 | Vincennes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-13 | Enghien | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength75%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10/2024 | 8th | 10/11 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |
| 12/06/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 06/08/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 92% | +0.02 |
| 13/10/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 73% | +0.05 |
| 17/12/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 08/04/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 58% | -0.21 |
| 21/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 63% | -0.06 |
| 30/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 16/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |