9
Lou D'ecroville
5yo Filly · 9-13
Argentan · Prix Capital Mail - Monte · 1m 6f 64y
#10
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength45%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Chatelaillon | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Le Mans | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Lisieux | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-02-27 | Vincennes | 5 | +1 | ||
| 2026-02-06 | Vincennes | 4 | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-01-25 | Nantes | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength39%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 04/11/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 10/11/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |
| 24/12/2025 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 25/01/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 06/02/2026 | 1st | 40/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 26/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 69% | +0.32 |
| 13/07/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 27/07/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 36% | +0.31 |