1
Lumio Fall
5yo Gelding · 10-3
Argentan · Prix Capital Mail - Monte · 1m 6f 64y
#7
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength42%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Caen | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Caen | 5 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Caen | 5 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Caen | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-04 | Les Sables | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-05-31 | Caen | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength68%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/03/2025 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 20/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 88% | +0.46 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 15/06/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 77% | -0.11 |