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5yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 98

Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Dash (Handicap) · 5f

#2

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Three-time winner in the US earlier in his career and has returned to his best for current yard this season, scoring at Thirsk (6f) in May and running well in similar C&D handicap last month (best work finish). Not seen to best effect held up in the Stewards' Cup last week and this is more his bag.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 2
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Naas 11/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 103 · 5f205y Yie 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/10/2025 · OR 103 par11/101OR 1031 @ Dundalk 24/10/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 102 · 5f Std 140 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/10/2025 · OR 102 par2 @ Goodwood 01/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 98 · 5f Gd 129 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 98 par1/052OR 982 @ York 13/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 22 · OR 95 · 6f Gd 130 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 95 par2 @ Thirsk 31/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 95 · 6f Goo 131 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 95 par31/052OR 952 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 27 · OR 95 · 6f GF 130 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 95 par2 @ Windsor 29/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 99 · 6f12y GF 141 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 99 par29/062OR 992 @ Ascot 11/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 98 · 5f GF 133 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 98 par2 @ Goodwood 01/08/2026 · Pos 24th of 27 · OR 99 · 6f GF 129 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 99 par1/082OR 99projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-01Goodwood224th24th0
2026-07-11Ascot23rd3rd0
2026-06-29Windsor24th4th0
2026-06-20Royal Ascot213th13th0
2026-05-31Thirsk21st1st0
2026-05-13York23rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/1013/0529/061/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength45%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/10/20259th3/184%11%-0.73
24/10/202514th22/10%0%0.00
01/05/20266th40/10%50%+0.50
13/05/20263rd50/10%90%+0.90
31/05/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
20/06/202613th50/10%54%+0.54
29/06/20264th9/488%67%-0.21
11/07/20263rd11/142%86%+0.44
01/08/202624th33/10%12%+0.12