7

Gaeli

5yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 96

Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Dash (Handicap) · 5f

#8

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Stepped up on his form in Italy when taking a Southwell handicap in March. Some excuses since, including at Newcastle last time when almost coming down after a bad stumble at the start. On a good mark if ready to roll for new yard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Southwell 04/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 96 · 4f214y Std 136 · beat its mark04/03/2026 · OR 96 par4/033OR 962 @ Southwell 21/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 102 · 4f214y Std 132 · beat its mark21/03/2026 · OR 102 par21/032OR 1022 @ Windsor 18/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 102 · 5f21y Goo 135 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 102 par18/052OR 1022 @ Windsor 08/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 100 · 5f21y Goo 142 · below its mark08/06/2026 · OR 100 par8/062OR 1002 @ Newcastle 26/06/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 98 · 5f Sta 138 · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 98 par26/062OR 98projClass-projected finish: 10th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-26Newcastle214th14th0
2026-06-08Windsor26th6th0
2026-05-18Windsor25th5th0
2026-03-21Southwell26th6th0
2026-03-04Southwell31st2nd1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0321/0318/058/0626/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 10
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/03/20261st25/10%100%+1.00
21/03/20266th9/276%55%-0.22
18/05/20265th18/15%50%+0.45
08/06/20266th8/158%0%-0.58
26/06/202614th14/126%0%-0.26