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Kendall Roy

5yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 102

Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Dash (Handicap) · 5f

#5

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 5f Cork listed race in June and ran a blinder in a competitive handicap back there last time, going down by just a neck. Likely type.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength45%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.9
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ York 20/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 20 · OR 90 · 5f89y Goo 128 · beat its mark20/08/2025 · OR 90 par20/082OR 90BHA90 @ Curragh 14/09/2025 · Pos 17th of 23 · OR 90 · 6f Yie 126 · below its mark14/09/2025 · OR 90 parBHA90 @ Curragh 27/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 90 · 5f Yie 131 · below its mark27/09/2025 · OR 90 par27/0990OR 90C0 @ Bahrain 19/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 131C0 @ Bahrain 16/01/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 93 · 4f214y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/01/2026 · OR 93 par16/01C?OR 93C0 @ Bahrain 19/02/2026 · Pos 10th of 18 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 1371 @ Cork 14/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 98 · 5f Gd 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 98 par14/061OR 981 @ Curragh 18/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 103 · 5f Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 103 parBHA102 @ Cork 24/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 102 · 5f GF 142 · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 102 par24/07102OR 102projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-24CorkBHA1023rd13th−8
2026-07-18Curragh19th7th+2
2026-06-14Cork11st0th+1
2026-02-19Bahrain?10th10th0
2026-01-16Bahrain?13th11th+2
2025-12-19Bahrain?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0819/1214/0624/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength85%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/08/20254th16/116%84%+0.68
14/09/202517th11/142%27%-0.15
27/09/20252nd10/147%90%+0.43
19/12/20251st15/261%100%+0.39
16/01/202613th13/266%0%-0.66
19/02/202610th16/116%47%+0.31
14/06/20261st28/10%100%+1.00
18/07/20269th40/10%11%+0.11
24/07/20263rd15/261%80%+0.19