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5

Spartan Arrow

6yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 97

Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Dash (Handicap) · 5f

#6

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Smart gelding who was a 4-time winner in 2025, signing off with a Group 3 success at Dundalk in October. Hasn't fired this year (left the impression he might have been keeping a bit back for himself at Goodwood when last seen in May), but down in the weights and has Ryan Moore up back from a break.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength53%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.3
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC1 @ Chantilly 24/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 102 · 4f213y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/06/2025 · OR 102 par24/06C1OR 1021 @ Goodwood 01/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 107 · 5f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/08/2025 · OR 107 par1 @ York 22/08/2025 · Pos 15th of 17 · OR 106 · 5f Goo 141 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/08/2025 · OR 106 par22/081OR 106C1 @ ParisLongchamp 14/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 104 · 4f213y Sft 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/09/2025 · OR 104 par1 @ Dundalk 24/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 103 · 5f Std 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 103 par24/101OR 103C0 @ Meydan 23/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 103 · 5f Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/01/2026 · OR 103 par2 @ Southwell 21/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 103 · 4f214y Std 133 · below its mark21/03/2026 · OR 103 par21/032OR 1032 @ Pontefract 07/04/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 101 · 5f3y GS 136 · below its mark07/04/2026 · OR 101 par2 @ Goodwood 01/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 100 · 5f Gd 131 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 100 par1/052OR 100projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-01Goodwood27th7th0
2026-04-07Pontefract213th13th0
2026-03-21Southwell28th8th0
2026-01-23Meydan?7th5th+2
2025-10-24Dundalk11st-1th+1
2025-09-14ParisLongchamp?6th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0614/0921/031/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength25%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/06/20251st11/893%100%+0.07
01/08/20259th28/10%27%+0.27
22/08/202515th66/10%13%+0.13
14/09/20256th11/271%29%-0.42
24/10/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
23/01/20267th10/147%33%-0.14
21/03/20268th25/10%36%+0.36
07/04/202613th11/271%0%-0.71
01/05/20267th9/153%40%-0.13