2
Tuco Salamanca
4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 100
Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Dash (Handicap) · 5f
#9
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.4
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Goodwood | 2 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Newcastle | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | York | 2 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Kempton | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-03 | Ascot | 2 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Curragh | BHA93 | 5th | 14th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength44%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/2025 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 59% | -0.02 |
| 24/07/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 21/08/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 14/09/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 82% | +0.13 |
| 03/10/2025 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 11% | -0.65 |
| 28/03/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 13/05/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 76% | +0.03 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 01/08/2026 | 14th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |