10
Hermetic
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 81
Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Stayers (Handicap) (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 7f 209y
#4
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Newcastle | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Goodwood | 3 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-13 | York | 4 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-11-02 | Angers | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-10-06 | Le Mans | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2025-09-20 | Le Lion D'angers | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength14%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 20/09/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 06/10/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 02/11/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 13/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 81% | +0.81 |
| 07/06/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 84% | +0.79 |