3
Kilmeaden
4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 91
Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Stayers (Handicap) (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 7f 209y
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲8
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 11.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -7.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Curragh | BHA91 | 5th | 14th | −7 |
| 2026-05-24 | Curragh | BHA89 | 3rd | 11th | −7 |
| 2026-05-03 | Cork | BHA91 | 7th | 16th | −7 |
| 2026-03-12 | Limerick | BHA126 | 4th | 17th | −11 |
| 2026-02-07 | Naas | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-12 | Punchestown | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength69%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 22/08/2025 | 10th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 23/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 12/01/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 07/02/2026 | 4th | 11/10 | 94% | 25% | -0.69 |
| 12/03/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 25% | -0.66 |
| 03/05/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 91% | +0.28 |
| 26/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |