2
Lavender Hill Mob
5yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 92
Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Stayers (Handicap) (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 7f 209y
#9
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.1
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Newbury | 3 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Kempton | 2 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-12-06 | Sandown | 2 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Cheltenham | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-25 | Newmarket | 1 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 17/06/2025 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 28/06/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 25/09/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 15/11/2025 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 06/12/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 28/03/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 13% | -0.40 |
| 17/04/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 16/06/2026 | 14th | 50/1 | 0% | 32% | +0.32 |