7
Marnier
4yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 87
Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Stayers (Handicap) (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 7f 209y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Sandown | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-13 | Sandown | 4 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-05-15 | Newmarket | 3 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-04-23 | Southwell | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-04-06 | Kempton | 3 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-11-04 | Lingfield | 5 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength96%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 10/06/2025 | 2nd | 8/15 | 97% | 50% | -0.47 |
| 03/10/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 04/11/2025 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 06/04/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 23/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 15/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 75% | +0.20 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |