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6

Mountain Road

7yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 87

Ascot · Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Stayers (Handicap) (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 7f 209y

#2

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Back to winning ways in 13-runner handicap at Thirsk (good) 69 days ago, proving well suited by the return to 2m. Wouldn't be a surprise to see him pull out more now he's found his feet for Jim Goldie.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 18/09/2023 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 82 · 1m7f218y Sta 142 · beat its mark18/09/2023 · OR 82 par18/094OR 822 @ Haydock 08/06/2024 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 83 · 1m3f175y Goo 116 · beat its mark08/06/2024 · OR 83 par4 @ Newmarket 22/06/2024 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 83 · 1m6f GF 136 · beat its mark22/06/2024 · OR 83 par22/064OR 833 @ Chelmsford City 07/07/2024 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 87 · 2m Std 132 · beat its mark07/07/2024 · OR 87 par3 @ Ayr 21/09/2024 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 90 · 1m5f26y Goo 137 · below its mark21/09/2024 · OR 90 par21/093OR 904 @ Musselburgh 26/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 87 · 1m7f217y Goo 140 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 87 par3 @ Hamilton 03/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 87 · 1m5f16y Gd 130 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 87 par3/053OR 873 @ Hamilton 17/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 85 · 1m5f16y Gd 130 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 85 par3 @ Thirsk 31/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 83 · 2m13y Goo 131 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 83 par31/053OR 83projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-31Thirsk31st2nd−1
2026-05-17Hamilton35th6th−1
2026-05-03Hamilton33rd4th−1
2026-04-26Musselburgh44th6th−2
2024-09-21Ayr38th9th−1
2024-07-07Chelmsford City31st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/097/073/0531/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/09/20232nd5/287%86%-0.01
08/06/20245th18/15%43%+0.38
22/06/20241st11/271%100%+0.29
07/07/20241st9/488%100%+0.12
21/09/20248th11/142%0%-0.42
26/04/20264th50/10%57%+0.57
03/05/20263rd16/116%50%+0.34
17/05/20265th33/10%64%+0.64
31/05/20261st9/153%100%+0.47